No. 61: The Ties That Bind
Hi, everyone:
While out walking this morning, I couldn’t help but notice how quiet the environment around me felt. Sure, it’s Friday, which naturally means less commuting traffic. But it’s also the literal calm before the winter storm.
As you may well know, especially depending on where you live, there is a huge winter storm warning for a good chunk of the United States over the next few days. That includes Charlotte, where the threat is less about snow and more about ice. Ice accumulation is slated to get so high that downed branches and tree lines will result in power outages.
The long-term power outage remains my biggest worry as we head into the weekend. I’m okay hunkering down and having a chill few days. I’m also already resigned to the fact that a snow/ice day is almost certain for Monday, at the very least. (Thus, I am thrilled Stella was able to get to school these past two days after having spent the previous two at home with a stomach bug 🤢.) I just don’t want to deal with the chaos that comes from not having heat or power.
Wherever you are, I hope you stay warm and safe this weekend. It’ll all be fine, but it might be a rough several days or so for a lot of folks.
In other news, I’m headed to Texas!
This week, I booked the first leg of my research trips for the unauthorized Don Henley biography that I’m writing. I have stops scheduled to meet up with some key people, and I am genuinely excited about visiting and seeing towns I’ve never been to before.
This project has been real since Day 1. I’ve treated it that way, and will continue to do so. But for some reason, booking a trip, spending money, all the stuff that comes with it … it’s made it feel even more real.
I’m sure to have lots to share from the trip (not till March), and I can’t wait to tell you all about it (without ruining spoilers, of course!).
Finally, I have a (at best) half-baked idea I came up with on my calm walk this morning. It has to do with how we think about roster-building and retention in college football. The headline is sexy: “Development before money.” But the details are more gray than black-and-white.
Here is the basic idea:
Since NIL really took off, the last three CFP national champions have a common thread, IMO — that is their ability to develop players. And I don’t mean over the course of two years, or four. This is not 1985, or even 2021. Rosters are changing at warp speed with the transfer portal plus NIL money.
Because of the constant changes, the window for championship-level play closes much faster. It’s too difficult to project how a roster will gel until the players and coaches are on the field performing. By then, it could be too late (cough, cough, 2025 Penn State).
But seriously, Penn State is a good example of this thought. The whole program thought it was preordained that Penn State would complete, maybe even win its first natty since 1986. But after all the hype, all the money spent on players, all the hoopla, they tanked. What really stings about it is not so much 2025, it’s 2024, and how the loss in the CFP semi-final to Notre Dame ended. The program was unable to develop Drew Allar fast enough, unable to develop enough key defensive players, and ultimately, it cost them when it mattered most.
On the flip side, you have a program like Ohio State, and they churn out dude after dude after dude. Sure, they pay a lot of money for these dudes, but the dudes talents don’t go unnoticed or wasted. I’m not specifically implying that’s what happened at Penn State, but there is probably some truth to it.
With the Hoosiers, you have a team that’s not even at the top of NIL, brought over a ton of players from the lowest rungs of Division I football, and yet still found a way to win the program’s first natty. The important thing here is they capitalized on the momentum from 2024 and carried it into 2025. Can they do it again in 2026? I don’t know! But it doesn’t matter anymore because they reached the mountaintop.
Clemson, back in the day, used to have the label “Clemsoning” attached to them when they’d inevitably lose a big game. Season after season, they were unable to develop enough talent to win the biggest game. In the old model, they were rewarded for their patience. In the new model, well, I think recent results have spoken for themselves.
All this to say that, of course, money matters. But it doesn’t mean much if you can’t develop players to win for you RIGHT NOW. Because next year, there is a very high chance the player the team is paying right now will not be with them anymore.
I’ll be fascinated, if the structure remains largely similar, how programs adapt. How much money do they end up pouring into coaches and other professionals who are proven to be developers of great football players? What kind of studies are being done right now by programs? I can’t be the first to have this thought. Maybe! But I doubt it.
Anyway, thanks for reading about my half-baked thoughts. Drop yours in the comments below, if you have any!
Thank you for being here. Have a terrific weekend!
- Colin