Let's Go State! Peach Bowl 🍑
Fans are confused, conflicted, and confounded as we enter the 2024 season, one that feels as pivotal for James Franklin at Penn State as any during his tenure.
The drubbing that Penn State football (10-3) took yesterday versus Ole Miss (11-2) has the Penn State community feeling much less optimistic as we enter a crucial 2024 season. It was bad that Penn State went oh-fer this season against its three best opponents. It was disappointing that no offensive identity came to life during the month plus the team had off. It was as poor of a showing for a reportedly “motivated” team as I can remember watching — one so pitiful that you feel terrible for the thousands of Penn State family, fans, and alumni who chose to travel to Atlanta on Saturday.
No, it hasn’t even been a full calendar year since the Nittany Lions were the ones doing the drubbing at the Rose Bowl, they had completely rebounded from two horrible Covid seasons, and were poised to go from great to elite with rising sophomore Drew Allar leading the way.
The 2023 regular season began hot and with signs of promise. Allar was spectacular in his starting debut, the wide receiver unit went wild against West Virginia’s defense, and Penn State picked up a dominant primetime non-conference victory that looked like it could be the catalyst for a special season.
That wasn’t to be, though. Looking back, it seems as if that game was the high point for much of the offense, especially Allar and the wide receivers, who struggled mightily at times for the rest of the season. We couldn’t have known it then, but the regression from those particular positions would fuel the negativity that surrounds the program on New Year's Eve 2023.
It leaves us all with more questions than answers and lays credence to James Franklin’s postgame presser quote about “too many moving parts” being a cause for the lethargic outing his team produced yesterday.
I’m at the point where I don’t need to know the causes anymore. Ole Miss was the better team yesterday. Sometimes that happens. There doesn’t need to be significant reasoning attached to every outcome, even if that’s what people want.
What I do want is to better understand the root of the challenges. I’m interested because I’ve noticed a shift. For years, the root challenges were off the field — facilities, salaries, NIL, etc. Those challenges don’t magically go away but it seems Penn State has found a way to be better in those areas. Which means the shift has occurred on the field.
To me, it’s no secret what needs to happen between now and August 31, 2024 — a rematch with West Virginia in Morgantown. To go from great to elite in 2024, the offense must adopt an identity. Scheming and coaching. Wide receiver and quarterback production. Better usage of the running back tandem. All of this needs stark improvement for Penn State to make a leap next year.
Let’s be honest, the defense will take a step back next season. That’s not a knock on any of the players coming back. I still expect them to be solid enough to help contend for a national title, but it’s hard to repeat as the nation’s #1 defense! So if we see a natural regression on that side of the ball — which was elite in 2023 — then the pedestrian offense needs to better support its counterpart for the Nittany Lions to have any chance.
New offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki has his work cut out for him. He’s known to be able to do more with less, excelling during his time at college football doormats like Buffalo and Kansas. Theoretically, Kotelnicki should have “more” to work with in State College.
In another sport and another time, Joe Torre was a well-respected manager who couldn’t get over the hump. When he finally got “more” with the Yankees, he excelled because he was able to use the same principles that made him previously successful, only to enhance them with better players at his disposal.
Kotelnicki should hope to be walking into a similar situation at Penn State, but only he knows that for sure right now. He’s had roughly three weeks of practice plus one bowl game to evaluate the offense before Spring practice in 2024. I’ll be interested to hear what his evaluations are and see what the portal activity is as a result.
You can bet that, aside from Franklin, Kotelnicki’s best friend early in his Penn State tenure will be wide receivers coach Marques Hagans. Hagens is himself less than a year removed from joining the coaching staff but surely must feel as if his seat is a bit warm right now. He was brought in to clean up a mess at wide receiver, yet production declined significantly under his leadership. KeAndre Lambert-Smith had the ultimate inconsistent season, and no one else would even get regularly mentioned by Franklin, save for Trey Wallace who cannot find a way to stay healthy enough to produce.
Franklin, Kotelnicki, and Hagans will be under deep scrutiny from now until August 31st. That pressure will ramp up when Fall camp begins, so I’d expect there to be a lot of long and difficult days ahead for the trio as they try their best to replicate the magic that Joe Moorehead and Co. brought in before the 2016 season — the last time Franklin truly had serious questions being asked about his longevity as head coach.
Ja’Juan Seider and Ty Howle figure to be more inclusive of the offensive makings in 2024. Franklin has explicitly stated his desire for more collaboration. After serving as co-offensive coordinators for the final two regular-season games and the bowl matchup, Seider (running backs) and Howle (tight ends) will have valuable insight to share to go along with their solid reputations as recruiters and coaches as position coaches.
In addition to the uncertainty posed by Allar and the wide receivers, the offensive identity for 2024 should begin to build from their areas of strength. Nick Singelton and Kayton Allen need to be more consistently better utilized in games, and Tyler Warren’s return marks the promising continuance of a dominant tight end group.
Many folks on social media are burning down the Penn State House, saying it’ll only get harder to win now with the new B1G alignment. But here’s the actual truth: we don’t know anything at this point. I know that’s not a sexy take, and it’s certainly not what most fans want to see written. But it’s as close to a fact as I can make in an opinionated piece.
Listen, I get it. It is okay to want better. I’ve waited thirty-four years to see a National Championship. I’m hungry. I want better, too. But to dismiss a 10-3 season as a “lame attitude” is toxicity and a narrative I don’t wish to be part of. Sure, there are challenges ahead. I just laid them out.
But let’s not pretend like Penn State is on an island all alone where they are the only program with challenges. Ohio State may not have a starting-caliber quarterback next season. Can Texas repeat its success, or were they a flash in the pan like LSU in 2019? Will Clemson dip into the portal or continue their quest to develop high schoolers like the old days? Will North Carolina ever be able to build on early season success and ride it to a playoff berth? Can USC fix its historically bad defense? Is Michigan headed for choppy waters because of the indiscretions of their coaching staff?
College football is fluid. The players are kids. They are legalized to vote and go to war in the United States, but that’s only because it’s written into law. Science tells us these kids still don’t have fully developed brains until they reach roughly 25 years of age. Perfection does not exist. It can be strived for but I think many fans would lose great sums of money if they bet that these kids at Penn State haven’t already worked their butts off to try and win the program’s first national championship since 1986. Same with the coaching staff and athletic administration.
I won’t be an apologist for this program, either, but I want to be as realistic and practical as I can in my fan analysis. If you don’t like it, there are plenty of energy vampires on social media ready to latch onto your negativity.
Don’t bring it here.
Lastly, I’d like to give another shout-out to Ben Jones for helping me get uncredentialed access to the program for 2023. Ben is a top-notch dude and has great coverage of Penn State athletics. Give his work a follow!
It was so fun to be on the inside and to get to know more of the program’s beat writers, too. I hope that extra access gave readers a better analysis from me throughout the season.
Penn State football certainly heads in 2024 with many questions. But this fan is just as excited as I was 363 days ago to see where the team can go and how it’ll do it. Let’s Go State! posts will be less frequent between now and August, but I hope you continue to join me here, and thank you for your readership in 2023!
We Are!